The cost ineffectiveness of armed conflicts in Africa, 2000-2025

Abstract

From around 2013, the number of armed conflicts in Africa increased to such an extent that over three quarters of the continent’s population were less secure in 2023 than they were a decade earlier. After reviewing the types of armed conflict, this article explains the main costs which they incur and then assesses the effectiveness of major armed conflicts on the continent between 2000 and mid-2025. Expressed in cost effectiveness terms, the resort to armed conflict to deal with differences and disputes during this time was very high in cost and very low in effectiveness. An attempt is then made to answer the following two questions: Why do countries persist with military approaches to meet security objectives? Are there more cost-effective alternatives available? The evidence is clear that the range of activities falling under the umbrella of peacebuilding are far more cost effective than armed conflict. A support structure would be required to organise and oversee their use and might involve the establishment of government ministries of peacebuilding.